| On Nov. 4, will white Americans vote for a non-white presidential candidate? Findings from the latest Baylor Religion Survey reveal that while 84 percent of white Americans said they would vote for a member of a racial minority for President, the voting decision was influenced by several factors, including most interestingly religious affiliation, view of the Bible and racial composition of congregations.
Religious Affiliation Affects Willingness of White Voters to Support Non-White Candidate
On Nov. 4, American voters will cast their ballot in a presidential race that includes an African-American nominee for the first time. Undoubtedly, it is a watershed moment for racial and ethnic minority groups in the United States. But will whites support a non-white presidential candidate?
Findings from 1,325 non-Hispanic whites sampled as a part of the 2008 Baylor Religion Survey, designed by Baylor’s Institute for Studies of Religion and conducted the Gallup Organization, reveal interesting patterns relevant to the historic presidential election.
One of the questions on the 2007 survey asked: “If your party nominated a member of a racial minority for President, would you vote for him or her?” Eighty-four percent of white Americans said they would, according to the survey. But this voting decision was influenced by religion, age, education, income and political party.
Influence of Religion on Voting for Non-white Candidate
Perhaps most interesting of the survey’s findings is the influence of religion on white Americans’ propensity to vote across racial lines, said Dr. Kevin D. Dougherty, an assistant professor of sociology at Baylor who specializes in religion, organizations, race and ethnicity.
Religious service attendance had no effect, according to the survey. However, religious affiliation, view of the Bible and racial composition of congregations did.
About eight out of 10 whites affiliated with Catholic or Protestant churches said they would vote for a racial minority candidate, if their party nominated him or her. Nine out of 10 whites who had no religious affiliation would support such a candidate. More literal views of the Bible corresponded to an unwillingness to vote for a racial minority among whites, the survey showed.
What matters more than denominational background or view of the Bible though is who else sits in the pews, Dougherty said. The survey showed that whites who belonged to congregations in which every member shared their race were among the least likely of all respondents to say they would cast a ballot for a non-white presidential candidate.
More sophisticated statistical analyses reveal that whites in racially homogeneous white churches are two-times less likely to vote for a racial minority presidential candidate, Dougherty said, even after controlling for other characteristics such as age, education, income, political party, religious affiliation and view of the Bible. The more homogeneously white a congregation’s membership, the less likely a white respondent was to vote for a racial minority candidate, according to the survey.
Dougherty said this speaks volumes about the role of religious communities in shaping present views of race.
“For many church-going whites, attending religious services does not bring them into contact with persons of other racial backgrounds,” he said. “It is easy to be distrustful of another group of people when someone is not personally acquainted with anyone from that group. The 2008 presidential election will test the consequences of America’s continued religious segregation by race.”
Influence of Age, Education, Income and Political Party on Voting for Non-white Candidate
Younger Americans and those with higher levels of education and income were more likely to say they would vote for a racial minority for president, according to the survey. Nine out of 10 persons aged 18 to 30 reported being willing to vote for a racial minority if nominated by their party for president. By comparison, 76 percent of persons aged 65 or older said they would cast such a vote. More than 90 percent of college-educated Americans and those earning more than $100,000 per year indicated that they would vote for a racial minority for president.
“Not surprisingly, Democrats showed greater willingness to vote for a racial minority candidate for president than did Republicans,” Dougherty said. “By fall 2007, Sen. Barack Obama was already a recognized candidate for president in the Democratic Party, although not the frontrunner. The response of Democrats to this survey question may relate to their positive regard for a particular candidate rather than the issue of race more generally.”
Responses to the question did not differ substantially by gender or region of the country.
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2008 by AlternativeApproaches.com
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